Betting odds are the language of gambling. Understanding odds transforms you from a casual bettor hoping for luck into an informed bettor making calculated decisions. This comprehensive guide explains everything about cricket betting odds—from basic concepts to advanced strategies.
Betting odds serve two critical purposes:
Match: India vs Pakistan
India to Win: 1.65
Pakistan to Win: 2.35
What This Means:
Odds fluctuate based on:
Format: Displayed as decimal numbers (1.50, 2.75, 3.00)
How to Read:
Calculation Formula:
Total Return = Stake × Decimal Odds
Profit = Total Return – Stake
Examples:
Example 1:
Example 2:
4.50 = ₹900
Why Decimal Odds Are Popular:
Format: Displayed as fractions (1/2, 5/1, 11/4)
How to Read:
Calculation Formula:
Profit = (Stake × Left Number) ÷ Right Number
Total Return = Profit + Stake
Examples:
Example 1:
Example 2:
Converting Fractional to Decimal:
Decimal Odds = (Left Number ÷ Right Number) + 1
Examples:
3/1 = (3 ÷ 1) + 1 = 4.00
4/5 = (4 ÷ 5) + 1 = 1.80
11/4 = (11 ÷ 4) + 1 = 3.75
Format: Displayed with + or – signs (+200, -150)
Positive Odds (+):
Negative Odds (-):
Calculation Formulas:
Positive Odds:
Profit = (Stake × Moneyline Odds) ÷ 100
Negative Odds:
Profit = (Stake × 100) ÷ Moneyline Odds (without minus sign)
Examples:
Example 1 (Positive):
Example 2 (Negative):
Converting Moneyline to Decimal:
Positive Odds:
Decimal Odds = (Moneyline ÷ 100) + 1
+180 = (180 ÷ 100) + 1 = 2.80
Negative Odds:
Decimal Odds = (100 ÷ Moneyline) + 1
-140 = (100 ÷ 140) + 1 = 1.71
Implied probability converts odds into percentage chances of an outcome occurring.
Why It Matters:
Formula for Decimal Odds:
Implied Probability (%) = (1 ÷ Decimal Odds) × 100
Examples:
Example 1:
Example 2:
Example 3:
Definition: The total implied probability of all outcomes exceeds 100%, creating bookmaker profit margin.
Example:
Match: India vs England
India to Win: 1.80 (Implied Prob: 55.56%)
England to Win: 2.10 (Implied Prob: 47.62%)
Total Implied Probability: 55.56% + 47.62% = 103.18%
Overround: 103.18% – 100% = 3.18%
Bookmaker Margin: 3.18%
What This Means:
Finding Better Value:
Value exists when your assessed probability exceeds implied probability.
Formula:
Value = (Your Probability × Decimal Odds) – 1
If Value > 0, bet has positive expected value
If Value < 0, bet has negative expected value
Match: Chennai Super Kings vs Royal Challengers Bangalore
Bookmaker Odds:
Your Analysis:
Value Calculation:
Value = (0.60 × 1.95) – 1
Value = 1.17 – 1
Value = 0.17 (17% positive value)
Conclusion: This is a value bet. Over time, betting when you have 17% edge generates profit.
Formula:
EV = (Probability of Win × Profit if Win) – (Probability of Loss × Stake)
Using Previous Example:
EV = (0.60 × ₹950) – (0.40 × ₹1,000)
EV = ₹570 – ₹400
EV = +₹170
Interpretation: On average, this bet returns ₹170 profit. Positive EV means profitable long-term bet.
Step 1: Develop Your Probability Model
Step 2: Compare with Bookmaker Odds
Step 3: Bet Only When Value Exists
Step 4: Track Results Long-Term
Warning: Value betting requires accurate probability assessment. Overestimating your ability leads to losses. Start conservative, refine over time.
Step 1: Data Analysis Bookmakers use sophisticated models analyzing:
Step 2: Initial Odds Creation
Step 3: Market Balancing
Step 4: Live Odds Adjustment
Odds Shorten (Decrease):
Example:
India to Win:
6 hours before match: 1.85
2 hours before match: 1.75
Just before match: 1.68
Reason: Heavy betting on India, bookmaker shortening odds
Odds Lengthen (Increase):
Example:
Pakistan to Win:
Morning: 2.20
Afternoon: 2.35
Evening: 2.50
Reason: India heavily backed, Pakistan odds lengthening to attract bets
Early Value:
Late Value:
Steam Moves:
Characteristics:
Typical Ranges:
Evenly Matched:
Team A: 1.90
Team B: 2.00
Moderate Favorite:
Team A: 1.60
Team B: 2.50
Strong Favorite:
Team A: 1.30
Team B: 3.80
Strategy:
Top Batsman:
Typical Odds Structure:
Opening Batsman: 4.50-6.00
Top Middle-Order: 5.50-7.50
Lower Middle-Order: 8.00-12.00
Tail-Enders: 15.00+
Factors Affecting Odds:
Top Bowler:
Typical Odds Structure:
Powerplay Specialist: 5.00-7.00
Main Strike Bowler: 4.50-6.50
Support Bowlers: 7.50-10.00
Part-Time Bowlers: 15.00+
Factors Affecting Odds:
Structure:
Total Runs Over 175.5: 1.90
Total Runs Under 175.5: 1.95
How Bookmakers Set Line:
Strategy:
Characteristics:
Example Progression:
T20 Match – Team Batting First
After 0 overs: 1.85
After 6 overs (48/0): 1.65
After 10 overs (82/1): 1.55
After 15 overs (125/3): 1.70
After 18 overs (152/5): 1.80
Final: 172/7
Odds fluctuated based on runs, wickets, required rate
Strategy:
Small Differences Compound:
Scenario: 100 Bets at ₹1,000 Each
Platform A (Average Odds): 1.85
100 wins at 50% rate: 50 wins
Returns: 50 × ₹1,850 = ₹92,500
Investment: ₹100,000
Loss: -₹7,500
Platform B (Average Odds): 1.92
100 wins at 50% rate: 50 wins
Returns: 50 × ₹1,920 = ₹96,000
Investment: ₹100,000
Loss: -₹4,000
Difference: ₹3,500 (46.7% better)
CricketDay Advantage:
Manual Comparison Process:
Time Investment:
Why Odds Differ:
Example:
Selection: Mumbai Indians to Win
Phenomenon: Bettors systematically overbet favorites and underbet long shots.
Result:
Example:
True Probability: Team A 70%, Team B 30%
Fair Odds: Team A 1.43, Team B 3.33
Actual Market (due to bias):
Team A: 1.35 (overbet, poor value)
Team B: 3.60 (underbet, value)
Strategy:
Phenomenon: Recent events influence odds more than they statistically should.
Examples:
Team Just Won Last Match:
Player Just Scored Century:
Strategy:
Phenomenon: Bettors emotionally support home teams, creating market distortion.
Result:
Example: India vs Australia in India
True Probability: India 55%, Australia 45%
Fair Odds: India 1.82, Australia 2.22
Actual Market:
India: 1.70 (overbet by fans)
Australia: 2.40 (value)
Strategy:
Definition: Betting on all outcomes across different bookmakers to guarantee profit.
Example:
Platform A: India to Win 2.10
Platform B: Pakistan to Win 2.10
Bet ₹500 on each (₹1,000 total):
If India Wins: ₹500 × 2.10 = ₹1,050 (₹50 profit)
If Pakistan Wins: ₹500 × 2.10 = ₹1,050 (₹50 profit)
Guaranteed ₹50 profit regardless of outcome
Why Not Recommended:
Purpose: Eliminate draw possibility by giving virtual head start.
Example:
India vs Bangladesh
India -2.5 Runs (Handicap): 1.90
Bangladesh +2.5 Runs: 1.95
If India wins by 3+ runs: India handicap bet wins
If India wins by 2 runs or less, or loses: Bangladesh handicap bet wins
Advantage:
Definition: Comparison between odds you got and final odds before match.
Example:
Your Bet: India to Win at 1.85 (6 hours before match)
Closing Odds: India to Win at 1.72 (match start)
CLV: +0.13 (7.6% better than closing odds)
Why It Matters:
How to Achieve Positive CLV:
Morning Research:
Afternoon Monitoring:
Final Decision (1-2 hours before):
Watch First Phase:
Assess Conditions:
Identify Value:
Execute Quickly:
Outright Winner Bets:
Example:
Pre-Tournament:
Gujarat Titans to Win IPL: 8.00
After 5 Matches (GT: 4 wins, 1 loss):
Gujarat Titans to Win IPL: 4.50
Strategy:
– Initial bet: ₹1,000 at 8.00 (₹8,000 potential return)
– Hedge bet: ₹500 on favorite at 2.50 (₹1,250 potential)
– Guaranteed profit if GT wins
– Limited loss if they don’t
Odds mastery is fundamental to profitable betting. Invest time learning, and returns will follow.
Ready to Apply Your Odds Knowledge?
